Defence 2025-2040: New Equipment & Capabilities for New Zealand. Opinion by Tim Tufuga

Lanud Manuhua

Well the only most likely enemy within the region is a regional coup within the Western Pacific region or a coup within any Pacific Island which would likely require a minimalist rapid response amphibious deployed mechanised infantry battalion at most at any time in the near future. Unless New Zealand expects an imminent invasion from China, for whatever reason, Id hardly think that sheep is that highly sought after. There is almost no geostrategic reason that China would have a remotest of incentive to ever consider 5 million Rugby and Cricket mad Kiwis worth considering invading by any sane Armed Forces anywhere. But, you want to have a Self Defense Force then you have to have one then. Kiwis, like the Aussies are reputedly the best at Special Operations deployments and small skirmishes like the NZSAS, the ODT, comparable to the Australian SASR, Commando Battalions and the Mine Clearance Divers units which is highly respected by World Military Forces. All other modern up grades such as asymmetrical warfighting capabilities from FPV Drone and AI Robotic EW capabilities are expected upgrades for these ANZAC warfighting capabilities. On a larger scale of military operations, I wouldnt consider an ANZAC two and a bit Divisional sized Army would present too much of a pacing threat to almost any Asian near peer adversary, even comparable to the Indonesian Armed Forces, or even the Malaysian, Singapore perhaps, but, not the Philippines Armed Forces in peer on peer military strength and capabilities apart from the RAAF with their 72 operational F35s presenting a significant force multiplier within South East Asia until the Indonesian Boramae Fighter Jets are operational within the next decade or so. For all the various upgrades of the New Zealand Defense Force capabilities it is natural disasters and humanitarian deployments that will be the mainstay mission for both the Australian and New Zealand Defense Force role for their respective Nations. After the recent operational outcomes of the Australian Bushmasters in Ukraine, and other NATO weapon systems, including the Abrams MBTs, the likely success of the ANZACs, under the current military status, in an actual peer on peer combat with any middle to superpower military power does not leave much confidence for a full fledged peer on peer conflict. Suffice it to say, the NZSAS and Australian SASR and Commando Battalions will serve as highly combat effective elements for certain minimal engagement operations supported by a Superpower amphibious Expeditionary Force elements, like the US Marine MEUs, who will from time to time, need the services of the Kiwis and Aussies in SPECOPS. Otherwise, the F 35s may have their work cut out from Tindall and Guam when a Russian Air Force Base is considered in Manuhua Base in Biak,Numfor Island, Indonesia in the not too distant future. Whereupon the RAAF and USAF F 35s and F22s may contend with engaing the Russian SU 35s, the SU 57s armed to the teeth with longer range R 77 and R 37m which have already splashed a number of F 16s in Ukraine in recent weeks of combat in Ukraine. Right here in the North of Queensland, we may have FONOPs engagements not only with the Chinese J 16s, or J20s, or J 35s, but, also the Russians aforementioned. Overall, the BRICS multipolarity new world order has suddenly made the ANZACs feel even less and less secure even within AUKUS and QUAD. Times are a changing.

Tim Tufuga

Source:

1. Strategy and Analysis Centre, youtube.com, https://youtu.be/A60rOAxdZ7Y?si=9JS9JkhvC5SCsZQh